Stargazing Guy

– Carl Sagan’s Fine Art of Baloney Detection, The Demon-Haunted World: Science as a Candle in the Dark

So, you’ve got the facts (1 of 10) and you’ve had a substantive debate (2 of 10) and now (Sagan’s third tool for detecting baloney) how to consider arguments from authority (3 of 10).

The next tool you will need is:

Spin more than one hypothesis.

If there’s something to be explained, think of all the different ways in which it could be explained. Then think of tests by which you might systematically disprove each of the alternatives. What survives, the hypothesis that resists disproof in this Darwinian selection among “multiple working hypotheses,” has a much better chance of being the right answer than if you had simply run with the first idea that caught your fancy.

First of all, what is a hypothesis?

A guess, technically, an educated guess. Make many guesses, the wilder the better – after all your experiment(s) will determine which of your hypotheses (guesses) are closest to the facts.

Many of hypotheses will be contradictory, so that some, if not all, will prove to be false. However, the development of multiple hypotheses prior to the research avoids the trap of the ruling hypothesis and thus makes it more likely that research will lead to meaningful results.

There is more about the scientific method in my previous blog on the wonderous thing about science.

PS: I love coffee. BuyMeACoffee, leave a message with a date and time and we can share it, remotely, at the same time, and think about the Cosmos.

In the meantime, take care of yourself and if you can, someone else, too, because as Adam Smith said, “we naturally desire not only to be loved but to be lovely”.

Contact Stargazing Guy for any copyright-related requests or queries @ stargazer1@stargazingguy.co.uk