Stargazing Guy

– Carl Sagan, The Demon-Haunted World: Science as a Candle in the Dark

Continuing with Sagan’s twenty most common and perilous pitfalls — many of which are rooted in our chronic discomfort with ambiguity — with examples of each in action. One and two (blog 1 of 11) are here.

The third and fourth of these pitfalls is covered below, with Sagan’s examples.

3. argument from adverse consequences (e.g., A God meting out punishment and reward must exist, because if He didn’t, society would be much more lawless and dangerous — perhaps even ungovernable. Or: The defendant in a widely publicized murder trial must be found guilty; otherwise, it will be an encouragement for other men to murder their wives)

4. appeal to ignorance — the claim that whatever has not been proved false must be true, and vice versa (e.g., There is no compelling evidence that UFOs are not visiting the Earth; therefore, UFOs exist — and there is intelligent life elsewhere in the Universe. Or: There may be seventy kazillion other worlds, but not one is known to have the moral advancement of the Earth, so we’re still central to the Universe.) This impatience with ambiguity can be criticized in the phrase: absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.

Here are some up-to-date examples:

1. argument from adverse consequences – “The medical tests show that Grandma has advanced cancer. However, that can’t be true because then she would die!”
2. appeal to ignorance – “There are ghosts in our attic; nobody’s been able to prove they aren’t there.” OR “Masha’s doing a great job as team captain since nobody complained about her.”

PS: I love coffee. BuyMeACoffee, leave a message with a date and time and we can share it, remotely, at the same time, and think about the Cosmos.

In the meantime, take care of yourself and if you can, someone else, too, because as Adam Smith said, “we naturally desire not only to be loved but to be lovely”.

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